Coronavirus Update - Time for Bold Action
Note: For those of you who follow me from other parts of the world, this blog is focused on activities and decisions being made in the US, though much of this information may apply to your country as well.
I have said it before, but it’s worth repeating:
Every decision is a new decision. As far as we know, there is no time machine, so we cannot go back to the past and do things differently. We can only make decisions going forward.
COVID-19 started in China just a few months ago. It expanded into Europe and then to the US and other continents. It initially spread through international travel and continues to do so. As a wildfire spreads further with high winds, a contagious virus spreads beyond its country of origin through people traveling internationally.
It is too late to keep this highly contagious virus contained in China; the coronavirus is upon us and increasing at an exponential rate. The question is: What do we do now?
WHAT THE US NEEDS TO DO RIGHT NOW
Anytime you are faced with a problem, the first thing to do is determine when you need to decide on a solution. If the problem, like the coronavirus, is rapidly accelerating, the timing of your decision has to be swift. Otherwise, you are literally behind the curve.
Time is not our friend here.
There is a term, called “theta,” which represents the “time decay” of a financial instrument. Here we have time decay in decision making.
What does that mean?
A well-thought-out solution implemented two weeks from now is not nearly as valuable as one taken today.
We need to have a nationwide mandate issued immediately. After all, the virus is not restricted by geography, race, color, or creed. The solution shouldn’t be either.
Predicting the Future - Pattern Recognition
COVID-19 continues to be spread in dense areas like New York City, and new pockets are cropping up across the nation. Yet, the different approaches to dealing with the pandemic vary greatly from state to state. The restrictions in New York are now clear, with New Yorkers ordered to stay home and all non-essential businesses in the state ordered to close as well.
Meanwhile, in Florida no such order has been made. As recent as yesterday, various beaches were still playing host to hoards of spring breakers thumbing their noses at social distancing recommendations, as city governments were charged with deciding how to handle the crowd issues. As can be expected when there is no structure or process in place for making such decisions, the domino effect of closures had another side effect: community divisiveness, as some fought to keep their rights to visit the beach and others felt closures were the “right” thing to do.
As I write this on March 23, 2020, major airlines are advertising fare sales and rock bottom prices. One airline, known for its abundance of non-stop routes between New York and Florida is offering flights as low as $21!
Price reductions are designed to encourage people to plan travel and buy tickets.
Most businesses are doing the right thing, but not all are. The government has to force them. The national government must act now to stop all domestic and international travel for 30 days. Yes, it will be inconvenient. But less inconvenient than people dying and the economy being destroyed.
If travel is restricted for 30 days, anyone who might get the disease already has it. As a result, any remaining clusters can be dealt with more effectively.
This restriction will keep people where they are and severely curtail its spread. It won’t end the virus, but it will be a vast improvement in ending transmission.
Everybody talks about “flattening the curve”. We need to ground the planes and crush the curve.
